Optimizing Decision-Making Under Uncertainty

This column provides a primer on how planning decisions might be made under uncertainty, when the probabilities of future outcomes are unknown, versus under risk where probabilities of future outcomes are known. I discuss how several companies leveraged their understanding of these concepts to respond effectively to the COVID-19 pandemic. I also include a Payoff Matrix that facilitates effective decision-making in uncertain environments according to the amount of risk a company is willing to undertake. A hypothetical COVID-19 analysis is provided with three decision styles that can help your demand and supply planning during the pandemic and for any disruptions the future ...