Strategic Planning for Global Supply Chains in a Fragmented World

There is currently a trend away from global free trade as more countries impose tariffs on imports. The World Trade Organization (WTO) has expressed concern because it is seeing a bifurcation of trade into two geographically divided blocs. It is estimated that were this to happen, it would result in a loss of 6.4% in global GDP. Previously, as part of the findings from the MIT Supply Chain 2020 Project, I postulated there might even be three or four major trading blocs in the future. This column discusses a strategic planning approach based on “Decision-Making Under Uncertainty”. It recommends using three future scenarios developed by the SC2020 project team as the basis for strategic scenario planning projects aimed at aligning a company’s future global supply chains to the trading blocs that might ...